Xavier (13-7, 4-3) vs Charlotte (10-9, 2-4)

Saturday, January 28 – 7:00 PM

Halton Arena

TV: Fox Sports Ohio

***

Bounce Back

Xavier visits Charlotte Saturday night in the first of a three game road trip which also includes trips to George Washington and Memphis.  This very well may be the make or break point of the season.  Seniors Tu Holloway and Kenny Frease desperately need to take leadership roles in order to turn around what was once a very promising season.  Three losses this early in the A-10 season is not something this program has been accustomed to the past six years.  The margin of error going forward is very slim for a sixth straight conference title and a win at Charlotte is clearly the only option.

49ers

I traded questions with J Felt over at GreenTintedGlasses.net, which delves into all things Charlotte sports, earlier this week and here is what he had to say about this year’s 49er’s squad.

*

It’s safe to assume most Xavier fans have not seen Charlotte play this season.  Tell us about the team.  What are the prevailing philosophies on the offensive and defensive ends of the floor?

Defense first.  It has been the only consistently good aspect of our game all season.  Alan prefers man to man defense first and foremost, but he’s put in a solid zone as well.  We’re doing a great job deflecting passes and getter steals but haven’t done a great job getting points off those turnovers.  We’ve cut down on the matador defense of years’ past and force our opponents to run the shot clock down and hopefully take bad shots.  I’d like to say most of our fans can agree that Major’s coaching has paid off on the defensive end.

As for the offense, it’s a free flowing system.  There’s less set plays and more room to create.  Our first goal on every possession is “get it to “Braswell” and work from there.  The players do an acceptable job of creating open shots but do a terrible job of hitting them.  We could use a lights out shooting guard to make the offense respectable.

Charlotte sits a very mediocre 10-8 on the year.  Has the season gone as expected and/or has there been noticeable improvement made coming off last year’s disappointing 10-20 campaign? 

Depends on who you talk to.  We’re an impatient fan base and we’re currently going through the second longest NCAA tourney drought in the program’s history.  Folks wanted a quick return trip to the NCAA tournament, and some came to expect it.  After last season’s terrible experience, our expectations have been tempered, hoping o see improvement and at least a .500 record, we it’s hard to be that disappointed with the season so far.

Are the fans happy with where the program is heading under the guidance of Alan Major?

As I said in the last question, it depends on who you talk to.  There are those that still think Lutz got a raw deal, so obviously they’re upset.  The rational answer is that it’s too soon to tell.

Xavier hasn’t exactly been playing great since the unfortunate incident December 12th against UC.  Hell, X lost at Halton last year as it is.  How confident are the fans a similar result will happen Saturday night?

We only beat Xavier when we’re awful.  Every other season we’re good or at best, mediocre, we lose to Xavier.  However, if our offense decides to finish layups and hit open shots, I could see a victory, but other than that I’m not confident at all.  How the hell did you guys lose to us last year?  Two conference wins for us: Fordham and Xavier.  Talk about polar opposites.

Chris Braswell is once again having a very good year.  Tell us about his play and what makes him Charlotte’s best player.

Chris is one hell of a basketball player.  He has a plethora of moves around the basket that get him to the basket for points or fouls.  He is the focal point of the offense and has carried the load for this team all the way.  In addition to his post play and rebounding, Braswell has been consistently hitting his jump shots and even hits the three ball at a good enough rate to keep defenses honest.  He’s stepped up his defense as well.

That said, he still struggles with double teams at times and can be frustrated by bigger defenders.  He really is a power forward being forced to play center.  Hopefully, next year he’ll get enough help from either Thorne or a newcomer to take some of the load off.  I fully expect him to blossom next season if we can get another threat in the paint on offense.

How do you see the rest of the A-10 playing out this season?  Predictions for Saturday night?

I want to say Dayton is due for a tailspin, but that may have been a Gregory-special.  Archie seems to have the Flyers heading the right way.  As for the rest of the conference, Xavier and Temple will be at the top, Fordham and Rhode Island will be near the bottom, and the middle will be as messy as always.

As for Saturday, the safe prediction is that Charlotte will put up a good effort but ultimately come up short in the end.

*

A big thank you to J Felt of Green Tinted Glasses.  If you like, you can read my answers to his questions regarding X hoops over there.  Let me know if you disagree.  I’m always down for a good debate regarding Xavier basketball.

Amusement

Shameless plug for my brother’s new band Houndmouth (facebook page as well).  I think they are pretty damn good so give them a listen won’t you?

D&V Approved Alumnus

Clay Aiken attended Charlotte so there’s that.

I see a similar tale as to the one J Felt sees with this game.  If Xavier has any kind of pride and wants to be taken seriously once again on the national scene then a win against Charlotte is the only result there can be especially with their starting point guard being out for the year.  X 73 – 49ers 62

Rob Loe and the Billikens did Wednesday what few A-10 foes could

For six years, the Cintas Center was the unbreachable fortress where conference opponents would come to frolic, then weep just before having the axe brought down. Sandwiched between a 68-58 loss to St. Joe’s on February 28, 2006 and Wednesday night’s 73-68 clunker to the Saint Louis Billikens, Xavier collected 43 wins to zero losses against A-10 foes on its homecourt. Said streak saw Xavier drop the confetti at the conclusion of five regular seasons, celebrating its Atlantic 10 hegemony from 2006 to 2011.

Wednesday night, a serviceable Saint Louis team ended that string of dominance, and in the process perhaps exposed the Musketeers as a middler in this year’s A-10 race. The Bills are hardly the last A-10 team to dominate the Musketeers, but the manner and disposition in which they took down XU at the Cintas Center was seminal. SLU was unflinching in the face of Mark Lyons’ career-high 27 points, Tu Holloway’s 22, Xavier’s 90 percent shooting from the line, or its supposed best defense in the conference.

Xavier was Cortes, bleeding for the first time in front of the Aztec, exposing its conference mortality for all to see. The Musketeers were undone Wednesday night before their own crowd by a team with a score of gangly, floppy-haired white guys who bore a gallery of the most punchable of faces to ever cross the Mississippi. But it wasn’t face-punchability that lost this for the Musketeers.

The Billikens entered the Cintas Center at 14-4, but in search of their first RPI top-50 win. Xavier was in earnest in getting its conference season back on track against a good opponent, after being embarrassed at Dayton a few days prior. Defensive intensity — specifically guarding the perimeter against a good-shooting Saint Louis team — would be the MO if Xavier was to advance to 5-2 in the conference. Instead, similar to last Saturday at Dayton, Billikens were allowed repeated good looks from distance, connecting on five of their first seven three-point attempts before Lyons could even get his first bucket. Whatever defensive credo Mack preached between Saturday and Wednesday either fell on deaf ears, or wasn’t equipped to handle the Billiken onslaught.

Walker was XU's defense personified against the unflappable Conklin

But three-point efficiency wasn’t half the problem for the Musketeers. Though the Bills were red hot from three in the first half, they went cold in the second, yet Xavier could never seize control. Enter Brian Conklin, Saint Louis’ 6’6 wrecking ball who, despite being the smallest frontcourt player to see action, abused Xavier’s 6’8 to 7’0 guys for a team-high 19 points. Jeff Robinson, Kenny Frease, Andre Walker, and Travis Taylor scored 19 combined, despite being the tallest group of players on the floor. This does not even account for the zero Dez Wells put up in 24 minutes of action. Such was the latest example of Xavier’s chronic deficiency of not only defending the post, but providing a consistent offensive presence down low to support the overworked and burdened Holloway and Lyons.

Three players — Holloway, Lyons and Robinson — accounted for 59 of Xavier’s 68 points. Depth extravaganza.

It became painfully obvious the two-dimensional nature of this team’s offense when, with Xavier trying to claw back with the clock spinning away, Frease and Wells eschewed open lanes to the basket so that they could pass off to a heavily-covered Lyons and Holloway to create. “Not me! You!” No player not named Holloway or Lyons even wants the ball when a play is needed.

Xavier’s defense did adjust in the second half, but similar to the La Salle, the Musketeers had dug too big of a hole to overtake the Billikens. Xavier used a string of stops on a 14-2 run to tie the game at 50 with 10:20 to go. Hot-shooting from Lyons, free-throw shooting from Holloway and perhaps the best inbounds play I’ve ever seen Xavier draw up (finishing with an uncontested dunk for Robinson) largely comprised the surge. The Musketeers had regained the crowd — which included Reds greats past and present in Joe Morgan and Brandon Phillips on-hand to cheer indifferently — and had apparently regained the defensive focus needed. But the Billikens never wilted in the pressure, and went to the consistent Conklin who took it to Frease inside, drew the foul and dropped two free throws to give SLU back the lead it would never relinquish. In fact, after seizing all the momentum in the building, Xavier allowed an 8-0 Billiken run to effectively decide it. The Musketeers were able to get the deficit down to a single possession in the final moments, but SLU was able to seal the game from the line.

Offense or defense, Mack had few answers

Xavier has now lost as many conference games this season as it had in the previous two. And we’re not even halfway through the A-10 docket. The game appeared to be doomed from the outset when Lyons and Frease were held out of the starting lineup with little explanation. ESPN’s Dana O’Neil opined that after watching a Xavier practice earlier this week that the two senior starters likely needed a “kick in the pants.” How or why these two would need such motivation at this point in the season, especially after being humiliated on national television against a rival, is beyond comprehension. Lyons at least holds water in this Xavier lineup, but Frease’s performance the last two games has been abhorrent. Against UD and SLU — two teams where Xavier sorely needed his inside presence — Frease averaged just 4.5 points in 17 minutes of action. When Holloway and Lyons are struggling — or better yet, quadruple-teamed — Xavier desperately needs a junkyard forward like Conklin to eat the ball, bang to the basket and either score or draw a foul. Instead, a modicum of contact will send the ball flying from Frease’s grasp.

Xavier’s glaring weakness is its frontcourt, even when it faces post players that are undersized. There’s no denying the superlative ability of Holloway and Lyons, but when defenses focus on the two, Xavier’s frontcourt can’t make the opposition pay and instead forces the ball further to Holloway and Lyons. Even when Holloway and Lyons were setting the world on fire early in the season, we knew we needed at least a serviceable frontcourt for a deep March run. The losses are beginning to mount.

With a poorly-producing frontcourt, XU guards like Lyons had nowhere to hide

TURNING POINT – Despite falling behind by 14 in the second half, Xavier tied the score at 50 with 10:20 to go off a pair of Holloway free throws. The Billikens responded by going again to their mainstay Conklin who drew a foul on Frease, sank both freebies and sent SLU on 12-3 run. The visitors took every punch Xavier sent its way, and responded in kind. Saint Louis earned this victory and the right to be the team to snap Xavier’s streak.

GAME NOTES –

• Defensive breakdown – In Xavier’s three conference losses, it has given up an average of 80 points. Xavier has struggled out of the gate defensively in its last two games, giving up 46 and 41 first half points to Dayton and SLU, respectively. Xavier’s last two games have seen them head into the intermission with double-digit deficits, and the Musketeers have not led at the half since the St. Bonaventure game. XU even gave up 39 first half points to a St. Joe’s team that didn’t have its best player. Whether the packline is having trouble closing out on shooters, stopping dribble penetration or defending the post, Xavier hasn’t been stopping much.
  
• Wells’ struggles continue – Wells had trouble getting going against Dayton, and had the same issues against SLU. The Billikens, like Xavier, are a halfcourt defensive team that is tailored to preventing fastbreak opportunities. As a result, Wells could never get out in transition, and when forced to operate within a halfcourt offense, he was stymied.
  
• Giving back – Xavier was merely the latest to fall victim to the Billikens’ turnover-inducing defense. The Musketeers turned the ball over 17 times, which yielded 16 points for the Billikens. Saint Louis’ defense is worthy of any acclaim for its ability to turn teams over while playing a primarily halfcourt defense.

NEXT UP – The wolf is at the door for the Musketeers. Xavier’s next three opponents are on the road, and that road starts with a trip to Halton Arena on Saturday to take on the Charlotte 49ers. The trip to Halton represented Xavier’s lone — albeit puzzling — A-10 loss from last season, and the Muskies are 3-2 there since Charlotte joined the conference. Charlotte is just 10-9 overall and 2-4 in-conference, but that doesn’t make this any less difficult, especially considering Xavier barely pulled away on the road against 1-5 Fordham. The 49ers have been in every game they’ve lost in the A-10, including falling at home to SLU by just two, and winning at St. Joe’s when the Hawks were at full strength. It’s anyone’s guess what Charlotte’s personnel will look like Wednesday, as the 49ers have lost point guard Pierria Henry to a sprained knee, and have suspended numerous players intermittently for “disciplinary” reasons. I still shudder to think what Chris Braswell may do against Xavier’s frontcourt.

Xavier (13-6, 4-2) vs. St. Louis (15-4, 3-2)
Wednesday, Jan. 25 – 7:00 p.m.
Cintas Center
TV:  Fox Sports Ohio.

***

State of the Union

Xavier entered its game vs. Dayton with a half game first place lead over the Flyers and were coming off a 4 game winning streak. Sparked by stifling defense it looked like the Musketeers we all know and love had returned. After getting clobbered 87-72 at UD Arena, the questions returned. It wasn’t so much that Xavier lost, UD is a solid team and a tough place to play, but how they lost.

Xavier’s defense, which looked great in the 2nd half vs. St. Joe’s, did not make the trip up 75 North over the weekend. For one of the very few times I have seen, the Xavier frontcourt was completely out toughed and out classed by the Dayton frontcourt. Kenny Frease’s defense has been pretty solid this season, but Flyer Center Matt Kavanaugh abused Kenny and the XU big men all game. Stat wise, Tu had an ok game, but struggled to contain Dayton PG Kevin Dillard. Any any hope X had to make it a game was lost at the charity stripe. Xavier’s free throw shooting woes continued as the Muskies shot 12-24 from the line. Aside from Mark Lyons stellar play, there wasn’t anything positive to say after this game. After the game Chris Mack commented “Teams take on the personality of their coach. I guess I’m not a competitive person.” Certainly not a quote you want to hear from your head coach after a conference and rivalry game.

The sky isn’t falling, it was just a frustrating and tough game to watch. Plus, no XU fan wants to admit that Dayton might actually have talent and a decent coach. I miss Brian Gregory.

Billikens

St. Louis stormed out of the gate this season and appeared to by a legit Top 25 caliber team. The Billikens have cooled off some since their hot start, but still have a decent resume and will be a tough out in A10 play. St. Louis has wins vs. Washington, Vilanova and Oklahoma. They have lost at New Mexico, at Dayton and home vs. Temple. The only questionable loss is to Loyola Marymount, which was partially due to tough scheduling 2 days after an in-season tournament.

This is the most talented St. Louis team since Rick Majerus became head coach. The Billikens are led by Junior PG Kwamain Mitchell, who missed last season for disciplinary reasons. The return of Kwamain has been crucial to their success. Mitchell enters Wednesday’s game having scored double figures in 6 straight games (11.8 ppg, 3.8 apg this season). St. Louis isn’t a very big team down low. 6’6” senior forward Brian Conklin leads the Billikens in both scoring and rebounding with 14.3 ppg and 5.4 rpg. Cody Ellis (one of the many international players Majerus brought it) is the 3rd Billiken who averages double figures (11.2 ppg). Offensively, St. Louis isn’t the most exciting team, but they have solid fundamentals and don’t make many mistakes. They shoot the ball very well at 47.3% which is good for 44th in the nation and 2nd in the A10. Their bread and butter is defense which has been superb thus far. St. Louis holds opponents to only 55.6 ppg, which is 1st in the A10 (and no one is close). Even though they aren’t a big or lengthy frontcourt, it is difficult to score on the inside vs. the Billikens.

D&V Approved Alumnus

Emmy award winning Sportscaster George Michael of The George Michael Sports Machine.

Amusement

This Packers fan did not take the loss to the Giants very well.

The Prediction

This is an important game for both teams. Still a bit too early to care what bracketologists think, but as of now both St. Louis and Xavier are around the 11 seed line in the projected brackets. These teams play each other twice this season, the 2 games could be crucial in the final A10 standings. St. Louis didn’t play the toughest out of conference schedule and could use another quality win, especially on the road. This game is big for Xavier as after Wednesday, X plays 3 straight games away from Cintas. You don’t want to lose at home in conference play, especially right before a long road trip.

It’s still tough to predict which Xavier team will show up. I think they are past the post-shootout funk, but as Saturday showed, they are still very Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde. It should be a close, defensive battle. Tu and Cheeks vs. Mitchell and Jett should be a good backcourt match-up. The Xavier frontcourt will have its work cut out vs. the stout interior Saint Louis defense. The XU bigs have to play better than they did vs UD for X to win. It will be a contrast in styles with X preferring a transition game while Saint Louis likes to slow it down.

I believe the game being at Cintas will be the X-factor as Xavier just doesn’t lose at home in conference play. Prediction: Xavier 68 Saint Louis 62.

Kevin Dillard made us feel things we'd never felt before

Dayton did more than win. The Flyers’ conference-leading offense buzzed Xavier’s A-10 leading defense, giving UD (14-5, 4-1) sole possession of first place in the Atlantic 10, and perhaps much more. Perhaps a message that it will no longer be overlooked or considered “little brother” in the Xavier lexicon. Dayton’s balanced offense blew the doors off the Musketeers, 87-72, for the third time in four games at UD Arena, reducing XU’s defense to rubble in the process. The point total yielded by the Musketeers was the most it had given up this season, and the most since Wofford scored 90 on Xavier in a triple-overtime game last season.

These aren’t Brian Gregory’s Flyers.

Dayton — a team that was rated in the lower half of the A-10 in the preseason with a new coach, mostly new cast and hampered further this season when its starting center was sidelined with a torn ACL — dominated the Musketeers in every facet imaginable, aside from maybe blue-ness of uniforms.

The Flyers’ Kevin Dillard, a transfer from SIU, engineered the decisive defeat of Xavier with 16 points and 9 assists. Dillard was almost surgical in slicing through Xavier’s conference-leading defense, drawing unfortunate defenders to feed his teammates through traffic for easy buckets or find them on the perimeter for unfettered threes.

No Flyer was more a beneficiary of the Dayton guards’ precision than Matt Kavanaugh, who registered a team-high 20 points and nine rebounds. Kavanaugh’s success underscored a major concern for Xavier, and that is its frontcourt, be it defending the post or scoring there consistently.

Heading into Saturday afternoon’s pivotal contest, the Musketeers needed their own big man with size and skill to counteract Kavanaugh’s consistent scoring presence inside (ohmygod, I’m actually writing this *takes a long, choking pull of whiskey*). But for whatever reason, Kenny Frease played just 16 minutes and scored five points and five rebounds. Was the game too “fast” for Frease? Are we seriously going through this again (see Kansas State)? Frease possesses a distinct size advantage over anyone on the Flyer roster, but was mostly MIA.

Kavanaugh continued his tear with ease against the XU frontcourt

When Josh Benson was sent writhing to the floor with a ripped knee three weeks ago against Ole Miss, his frontcourt mate Kavanaugh assumed the opportunity, and has averaged 15 points and six rebounds during conference play (*takes another pull of whiskey*). Dillard and Kavanaugh led four Flyers in double-figures, including Josh Parker coming off the bench for 16 points off 3-of-5 shooting from three.

Holloway and Mark Lyons turned in a considerable effort for the Musketeers, combining for 41 points, 11 assists and six rebounds. But it pretty much ended there for Xavier. No other Musketeer offered a passable performance for competing with the intensity of the Dayton Flyers, with UD players beating every Musketeer to the all-important 50/50 ball. The best measures of effort within the game of basketball are rebounding and defense. UD won on both, keeping Xavier’s offense off-balance and out-rebounding XU, 40-28.

Xavier shot an abysmal 12-for-24 from the free-throw line. Unacceptable. Then again, it likely wouldn’t have made a difference. Each time Xavier made a modest threat to the Dayton lead, the Flyers would get a three down or a Musketeer would lose a man under the basket for an easy bucket. Xavier’s offense wasn’t consistent or efficient enough to ever seriously threaten UD’s advantage, as the Flyers’ lead remained in double-digits throughout the second half, twice reaching an insurmountable 18 points. From 2:09 left in the first half and on, UD’s lead never dipped below 10.

It was unclear whether Xavier entered Saturday afternoon with no desire to play — such a notion would be inexplicable, if true — or whether the Musketeers were easily discouraged by Dayton’s early run. Not sure which is worse.

We can placate our anxiety by reminding ourselves that it’s a long season. But it’s not getting any longer. Dayton represents a good basketball team, vastly departed from the ilk of Gregory, and the type of team Xavier will face very early in the NCAA Tournament, should it make it there. Issues that continue to re-surface — missed free throws, flaccid rebounding effort, a dearth of scoring in the frontcourt — appear to be here to say, and concerns Xavier must contend with (or at least somehow make them less of a problem) going forward.

Xavier will fortunately get another shot at the Flyers next month, but hopefully will take such an opportunity with vital lessons learned.

TURNING POINT – Xavier had the lead once, off a three from Dez Wells to open the game’s scoring. Dayton promptly tied it, then took the lead three minutes in and never relinquished it. It was domination by the Flyers from essentially start to finish.

GAME NOTES -

• Arena of Pain – Three of Xavier’s last four trips to UD Arena have not been competitive, with UD winning by an average of more than 17 points in those three wins. In each game, Xavier leads were either early and short-lived, or nonexistent. The energy of UD Arena has been something lately good Xavier teams have been able to overcome.
• Dez’s debut – It was a forgettable debut for Dez Wells in the XU-UD series. The Musketeers needed his energy and defensive intensity, but the freshman often lost his assignment on defense and apparently succumbed to the emotion of the environment. He fouled out with five points and four rebounds.
• Free throws – Xavier 50 percent. UD 78 percent. In close games, free throws can win it or lose it. Fortunately, this game was rarely close.
• Defenseless – The Flyers shot 50 percent from the field when Xavier had managed to hold its previous four opponents to under 40 percent. Only SBU had scored more than 60 points (64) in that span, but UD shattered that with 87 points in 40 minutes of regulation. Xavier simply had no answer for UD’s offense.
  

NEXT UP (January 25) – Xavier will have little opportunity to feel sorry for itself after the affair at UD, as it must regroup quickly to take on the St. Louis Billikens (15-4, 3-2) at the Cintas Center. The Billikens garnered some serious national attention early in the season, but fell off the map a little after a loss to Loyola-Marymount. They are 3-2 in conference, but those losses came at UD in overtime and versus Temple. Rick Majerus has a very talented, but disciplined outfit in SLU, so a win at home over the Bills may be the salve needed from the UD debacle. Xavier’s poll position in the Atlantic 10 will be seriously challenged on Wednesday, as will its conference-best 43-game home winning streak in the A-10.

***

“The championship goes through them.”  A terrific second-half performance lifted Xavier to a 43rd consecutive home conference win and, at least according to St. Joseph’s coach Phil Martelli, served notice to the rest of the Atlantic 10 that the Musketeers are back in form.

The homestand couldn’t have come at a better time for the Musketeers.  A couple of weeks of home cooking, supportive crowds, and manageable opposition has boosted XU’s confidence and intensity.  Now it’s time to prove it on the road.

Perhaps the most satisfying thing about these three wins was the way Xavier was able to crank up the defensive intensity when required.  Duquesne managed only 17 first half points, SBU was held in check to the tune of 22 first half points on Saturday, and while St. Joe’s capitalized on some sloppiness before the break Wednesday, X conceded only 16 points in the second half and ran the Hawks off the floor.

Now the Musketeers head up I-75 for the annual rivalry game at Dayton.  Last year, XU and UD played three extraordinarily tight games.  In all three games, the winning team weathered a furious late rally – X at Cintas in January and at UD Arena in February, UD in Atlantic City in March.  Encounters between these two teams in recent years have generally been ill-tempered and decided on razor-thin margins.  Don’t expect anything less Saturday afternoon.

Flyers

In the waning years of the Brian Gregory Era, the Dayton basketball program was the American equivalent of a midtable Premiership soccer team – Blackburn or Bolton or something.  Too good to be drawn into a relegation fight, too flawed to ever win anything.  Gregory was a fine ambassador for his program and did enough on the recruiting trail to keep his job, but his shortcomings as a coach put a ceiling on UD’s potential.  So when Georgia Tech inexplicably came calling this summer, Dayton fans were … how shall we put this nicely … not entirely disappointed to see Gregory go.

To their credit, UD seized on this unlikely act of deus ex machina and made a brilliant hire.  Archie Miller, owner of an illustrious pedigree and considered one of the top assistants in the country, jumped at the opportunity to begin his head coaching career in the Gem City.  If he succeeds, he won’t be there long – I think everyone understands that – but it’s smart for Dayton to take that chance.

At this early stage, you’d have to consider Miller a strong candidate for Coach of the Year.  Both of Dayton’s highly touted young guards, Juwan Staten and Brandon Spearman, jumped ship at the end of last year.  UD lost a recruiting class.  And most recently, starting power forward Josh Benson suffered a season-ending knee injury.   Despite a short bench and cobbled-together roster, Dayton currently sits at 13-5 and has assembled a credible NCAA at-large resume (wins over Alabama, Minnesota, and at Ole Miss, and only at Miami and Buffalo as questionable losses).  In league play, the Flyers beat Saint Louis at home, upset Temple on the road, and suffered a narrow loss at St. Bonaventure despite missing two of their top three scorers.  If the season ended today, UD would probably be in the tournament.  Barring collapse, they’ll be there in March.

Since the loss of Benson, Dayton is primarily a four-in, one-out team that shoots a million threes and hits the offensive boards hard.   Kevin Dillard, a transfer from Southern Illinois, was the Missouri Valley’s top newcomer as a freshman.  A shoot-first PG, Dillard leads the Flyers with 12.2 ppg and dishes out 5.7 apg.  Josh Parker, a transfer from Drake, is an absolute gunner and streak shooter with the capability to take over a game for either team.

Musketeer fans are quite familiar with the Dayton wings.  Chris Johnson, a smooth lefty from Columbus, is an aggressive offensive rebounder and an outstanding outside shooter.  Paul Williams, famously (in some very small, pathetic circles) passed over for Mr. Basketball in Michigan in favor of Brad Redford, is a bit of an enigma but is capable of devastating opponents when interested.  Dillard’s ability to penetrate and dish to these two guys makes UD’s offense go.  Johnson is shooting 43% from three and Williams 39%.  These players will present a real challenge for Dez Wells and Andre Walker, because not only are they outstanding outside shooters but they also will be aggressive in chasing weak-side rebounds and creating garbage baskets inside.

Dayton’s weakness is in the post.  The three-headed monster (referred to by the Blackburn Review as the Ivory Towers) of Matt Kavanaugh, Alex Gavrilovic, and Luke Fabrizius ( who is really miscast as a 4) are not particularly athletic or imposing.  Kavanaugh can be effective when he gets good position, but for the most part these guys are not going to kill you.  Kenny Frease, who played very well against SJU, should get some outstanding opportunities to post up.

This game marks the beginning of a new phase in the Xavier-Dayton rivalry and, apart from some of the personnel, games played in previous years are pretty meaningless to this affair.  Anyone that thinks they know what will happen tomorrow afternoon is fooling themselves.

Chris Johnson continues his recovery from “concussion-like symptoms” but you’d be foolish to believe he’ll miss his last home game against the Musketeers.  Luke Fabrizius continues to wear the Hannibal Lecter mask after breaking his nose a few games ago.  From the XU side, Kenny Frease didn’t play a lot of minutes against St. Joseph’s but did not appear slowed by his foot injury.  With the exception of Josh Benson, lost for the season to the Flyers, both teams are at full strength.

Projected Starters:  Dayton – Dillard, Parker, Johnson, Williams, Kavanaugh; Xavier – Holloway, Lyons, Wells, Walker, Frease.

Amusement

Typically this is some sort of funny picture of a cat or some other bullshit I found on the Internet in 90 seconds while writing the article.  Here, it is a plea to those of you who aren’t that you need to start watching Justified or else you are missing absolutely prime ownage on a weekly basis.  That is all.

D&V Approved Alumnus

The legend of Dan Patrick (Pugh), UD Class of 1979, still hangs over our shared hometown of Mason, Ohio, like a silverback gorilla of broadcasting excellence and impeccable hair.

The Prediction

Although the comparison is not perfect, post-Benson injury Dayton and post-Shootout Cincinnati have followed similar blueprints.  They both will hoist a ton of three-point shots, they both will send their perimeter guys in to crash the offensive boards, and they both have found success in pushing the tempo of games and keeping opponents off balance.  Dayton is shooting 20 three pointers a game, and has hit 10+ threes in nearly half their contests.

Xavier’s three-game home winning streak, with each win in double-digits, felt like a turning point in the season.  But it is worth remembering that each victory came over a team missing a crucial player (BJ Monteiro, Michael Davenport, and Carl Jones).  I don’t think we’ve seen anything like the best of this Xavier squad just yet.

Victory in Dayton will not come easily.  Miller’s Flyers are playing at a high level regardless of venue, and UD Arena is one of the least hospitable venues in college basketball.  Given Xavier’s issues this season, you can expect an even more ill-tempered and obnoxious crowd than normal tomorrow afternoon.  Xavier’s veteran leadership will be critical from a psychological standpoint – and a quick start wouldn’t hurt, either.

I can’t help but feel like if this game was played in a month’s time that Xavier would win pretty handily.  But looking at the present circumstances of the two teams gives me pause.  X is really going to have to do a good job with its perimeter defense, a weakness at times this season, and is going to have to find the range from the outside to free up Frease on the interior.  Another big game from Jeff Robinson would not go amiss – the 6-9 junior has put together several credible offensive performances recently and could be a critical player tomorrow if he can stay out of foul trouble.  In any event, this is by some distance the most challenging league game X has faced thus far, and feels like the line should be Dayton favored by 2-3 points.

Although I do think X is on the comeback trail and the rest of the season will be very successful, I have a tough time picking a road win in that kind of environment.  I hope to be proven wrong at about 3:10 p.m. tomorrow afternoon.  Dayton 68, Xavier 64.